The macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in. Gdp is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year. Data in this publication are current as of their publishing date or in some casesprojected date. Zambia in figures 2018 features statistical information on various themes pertaining to social, economic and agriculture statistics. True contribution of agriculture to economic growth and. For the first time since 1989 zambias economic growth reached the 6%7% mark in 2007 needed to reduce poverty significantly. Economic growth is a subset of economic development and it focuses on growth in the gross domestic product gdp from one period to another oecd, 2016. The program is designed to help zambia restore its gdp growth, currently standing at 3%, which is below the 7% levels required to reduce poverty and to drive zambias development. An empirical investigation find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Zambias real gdp growth moderated sig nificantly to 1.
Prgf poverty reduction and growth facility prs poverty reduction strategy. Access the latest politics analysis and economic growth summary through 2011 for zambia from the economist intelligence unit zambia economy, politics and gdp growth summary the economist intelligence unit. This page has economic forecasts for zambia including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the zambia economy. According to the world economic forums 20142015 the global competitiveness, zambia is the 8 th most competitive economy in subsaharan africa, out of 33 economies analysed. The report includes countryspecific threeyear forecasts for major macroeconomic indicators, including commodity and financial markets.
In addition to integrating development across key sectors for propoor economic growth, tackling vulnerabilities is poised to reduce social exclusion. Zambia had one of the worlds fastest growing economies for the ten years up to 2014, with real gdp growth averaging roughly 6. Incidence of poverty in zambia, 19952010 growth elasticity of poverty. However, new investment in the copper sector and in construction should result in a growth of 3. Zambia has a wide range of renewable energy sources solar, hydro power, biomass, wind, geothermal and energy crops with great potential. Why has poverty remained so high, despite gdp growth. Zambia economy, politics and gdp growth summary the. Zambia was hampered in this process by institutional and policy gaps.
Growth in consumer prices was further exacerbated by exchange rate passthrough. The domestic and international financing should be used to catalyze and leverage private sector investment in addressing climate change. Oct 25, 2014 according to the world economic forums 20142015 the global competitiveness, zambia is the 8 th most competitive economy in subsaharan africa, out of 33 economies analysed. Although all of them contribute to illuminating this aim, question 1 and the. The gross domestic product gdp in zambia expanded 1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 over the same quarter of the previous year. A booming copper industry, zambias economic mainstay, encouraged state controlled policies. With good economic management and several years of strong economic growth, zambia has turned around its image as a country performing below its potential. Zambias economy was hit by drought in the south and west that lowered 201819 agricultural production and hydropower electricity generation considerably. Climate change, economic growth and poverty in zambia. Zambia is a peaceful, democratic country with enormous economic potential, now grounded in its rich endowment of natural resources. However, these changes have yet to make a significant impact in zambias economic state, and it seems that they have a long way yet to go.
Despite this favourable shortterm outlook, the absence of a comprehensive strategy of development will adversely affect the countrys performance in the medium term. Mucavele 1 1 phd agricultural economics and natural resources, professor, director for academic reform and regional. In this vein, rao further elucidates that economic growth is the rate of growth of total economic output inclusive of the contribution of capital accumulation in this output rao, 2003. The same report ranked zambia as the 96 th most competitive economy in the world out of a total of 144 countries. In this respect, the paper estimates an inflation threshold level of 22. Human capital, economic growth, education, health, ecm model, zambia introduction economists have long believed in the importance of human resource development in the economic growth and development process. The strategy is designed to assist zambia sustain economic growth while diversifying the economy and strengthening country competitiveness. Zambia gross domestic product gdp per capita 19842024. Access the latest politics analysis and economic growth summary through 2011 for zambia from the economist intelligence unit. Zambia gross domestic product gdp growth rate 2014. In order to achieve the overall aim, the zambia country study will address the following two research questions. Waldo swiegersbloomberg zambias economic growth slumped to 2. Zambia gdp annual growth rate 19612019 data 20202022.
The macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in zambia. Nov 26, 2019 the statistic shows gross domestic product gdp per capita in zambia from 1984 to 2024. Since zambias economy is said to be dependent on copper mining, economic analysts postulate that economic growth in zambia is dependent on international copper prices. Results for zambia indicate that climate variability significantly reduces economic growth with adverse effects on poverty. The plan further reveals that zambia has to make fundamental policy shifts if the country is to achieve the objectives of the vision 2030. Growth remained restrained and insufficient to ensure a positive per capita growth rate. The same report ranked zambia as the 96 th most competitive economy. Projected population growth rate by province and year province. Copper output has increased steadily since 2004, due to higher copper prices and the opening of new mines. Lusaka, june 29, 2017 the zambian economy has continued its recovery in 2017, but the stronger growth and better macroeconomic indicators have not resulted in an improvement in the fiscal indicators, says a new world bank economic brief reaping richer returns from public expenditures in agriculture pdf released today.
One of the significant facts arising from empirical growth studies is that economic growth. Zambia economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. The zambian government officially launched its economic recovery program on october 20th, 2016. This systematic country diagnostic scd for zambia is a country. For the first time since 1989 zambia s economic growth reached the 6%7% mark in 2007 needed to reduce poverty significantly. Political and economic liberalisation in zambia 19912001 lise rakner the nordic africa institute, 2003 rakner i page 1 wednesday, october 1, 2003 2. In their quest for economic growth and development, governments particularly those in developing countries have resorted to spending more than the revenue that they generate. Learn more about the zambia economy, including the population of zambia, gdp, facts, trade, business, inflation and other data and analysis on its economy from the index of economic freedom. To illustrate the point, in the year 2000 zambias total public expenditure was around 33% of gdp and its. The most urgent issue for the zambian economy is thus a further reduction of its.
Zambia is africas secondlargest copper producer which achieved middleincome country status in 2011, during a decade 20042014 of impressive economic growth, averaging 7. However, the zambian gvernment is undertaking economic diversification to reduce the countrys reliance on the copper industry and exploit other components of zambias rich resource base by promoting agriculture, tourism, gemstone mining and hydro power generation. The economy likely remained in a dire situation in h2 2019, after growth slumped to a threeandahalfyear low in q2 2019. In the first ten years after independence, the nation experienced a growth averaging 2. Government of zambias goz possibilities of diversifying the economy to enable longterm sustainable economic growth. Zambia s economy was hit by drought in the south and west that lowered 201819 agricultural production and hydropower electricity generation considerably. A booming copper industry, zambia s economic mainstay, encouraged state controlled policies. Public spending and economic growth in zambia an economic. An overview of zambias economic and poverty situation. Nyambe department of economics, university of namibia pbag 301, windhoek, windhoek, namibia abstract this study was conceived to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in zambia.
Economic snapshot h2, 2016 inflation zambia grappled with a rapid erosion of domestic purchasing power over the past 10 months as the regional drought weighed on food availability and power generation capacity. Zambia african economic outlook african development bank. Accordingly, in this report, we utilize a representative survey of nearly 500 tobacco farmers to examine their economic livelihoods. Despite negligibly higher growth than in 2015, 2016 proved to be challenging for the zambian economy. Global growth prospects and demand for copper remained low throughout most of the year affecting the price which averaged usd 4 860 per ton. The missing link between economic growth and development. Mucavele 1 1 phd agricultural economics and natural resources, professor, director for academic reform and regional integration, universidade eduardo mondlane, and fanrpan steering committee member, mozambique node.
However, the zambian gvernment is undertaking economic diversification to reduce the countrys reliance on the copper industry and exploit other components of zambia s rich resource base by promoting agriculture, tourism, gemstone mining and hydro power generation. Global, ssa and zambia trends in foreign direct investment and real gdp growth rates, 2000 to 2014. However, growth only benefitted a small segment of the urban population, with limited impact on poverty. From 1978 to 2003, economic growth and financial development had a longterm cointegration, and it showed oneway supply relationship according to the granger causality test, which means the. Zambia global economic prospects examines trends for the world economy and how they affect developing countries. These results indicate that economic growth in zambia can be stimulated even in a moderately high inflation environment. It identifies gaps in zambias development strategy that contributed to the deterioration of poverty indicators in spite of soaring commodity export revenues and high. For example, since 2007, many health indicators have progressed. Based on information from the ministry of finance, growth of real gross domestic product gdp is estimated to be 3. Zambia is a ldc located in ssa and agriculture is the mainstay of about 70% of the population united nations development programme2015.
For example, under the expected scenario, climate variability will reduce economic growth by 0. The bank of zambia says the risk of global growth remains tilted downwards. In spite of good gdp growth in 1996 which was over 6 per cent following a good harvest growth in the rest of the 1990s was either negative or slightly positive. Boz further notes that inflation outcomes are expected to range from a minimum of. Economic growth has been accompanied by much better development outcomes in health and education. Political and economic liberalisation in zambia 19912001. Trends in foreign direct investment and real gdp growth rates, 2000 to 2014. Pdf on mar 1, 2016, themba gilbert chirwa and others published sources of economic growth in zambia.
Zambia, autoregressive distributed lag model, economic growth introduction the achievement of high and sustainable rates of economic growth is a central theme in many economies in the world. The statistic shows the growth in real gdp in zambia from 2014 to 2017, with projections up until 2024. Zambia has strong growth potential, but lingering vulnerabilities pose risks to the outlook. This research investigates the determinants of economic growth in zambia using the bounds approach to cointegration developed by persaran and shin 1999. Malawi, mozambique and zambia synthesis report by firmino g. Severe drought conditions continued to restrain output at hydropower dams, weighing on the agricultural harvest and seemingly undercutting household spending growth in turn. Economy and globalization in zambia mit opencourseware.
As a result, the benefits of economic growth did not trickle down to the majority of the population. The countrys economy has historically been based on the copper mining industry. In support of zambias commitment to the economic programme, at the consultative donor meeting held in. Zambia economic outlook real gdp growth slowed to an estimated 2% in 2019, down from 4.
Table 1 2018 cpi inflation has risen above the upper a b. Child malnutrition, infant and under5 mortality, and the maternal mortality rate have decreased. Approximately the same fraction of people whose primary economic activity is agriculture live in the rural areas and about 77% of them are poor. Zambia launch zambia plus economic recovery program.
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